AsiaLIFE

World sport’s major team tournament comes round once every four years, but who will lift the Jules Rimet Trophy in South Africa this July? Mark Bibby Jackson guides you through the potential heroes and zeroes of the 2010 World Cup. (Photos provided by AFP).

Unlike U.K. elections the winner of this year’s World Cup will be decided on Jul. 11 without any need for a hastily cobbled together coalition. The result might have to be decided by a penalty shoot-out like in 2006, but there will definitely be a winner on the night. The only question is which of the 32 participating nations will be invited to meet the Queen?

Over the history of the World Cup there are two general rules. First, if the tournament is held in Europe it is won by a European team (with the exception of 1958 when Brazil won in Sweden). Second, when held elsewhere the winner comes from outside of Europe, and more specifically from within South America – Uruguay (twice), Argentina (twice) and Brazil (five times). As these finals are being held in South Africa, everything points towards a South American victory.

Forget holders Italy, runners-up France, powerhouse Germany, and form teams Spain, the Netherlands and England, history determines that the Jules Rimet Trophy will be heading back to South America.

Indeed after Argentina’s well-documented trials in qualification, leading to an expletive-ridden outburst by coach and national hero Diego Maradonna, need we look any further than neighbouring Brazil. Start tying those gold and green ribbons now.

But as the U.K.’s first coalition government since 1945 just goes to show, history is made to be broken.

Although Brazil goes into the tournament as many people’s favourites to lift the trophy for a sixth time, there is much to suggest that this time a new name will be added to the previous seven winners.

Perpetual under-achievers Spain qualified with a perfect ten out of ten qualifying record winning tricky away games in Turkey and Bosnia, and without conceding a goal at home. The current European champions have been practically inch-perfect since lifting that crown two years ago – a surprise loss to the U.S. in the Confederations Cup semi-finals the only blemish. With David Villa and Fernando Torres upfront and the likes of Xavi, Iniesta and Alonso in midfield it is easy to see why they are pre-tournament favourites, even if Fabregas is not fit. Ironically the injury-hit season that Torres has endured for Liverpool might play into Spain’s hand, keeping the man who scored the winning goal in the European Championship final fresh for South Africa.

Expect Spain to have a good run, especially after being drawn in a favourable group with Switzerland, Honduras and Chile. The Spanish look like being Brazil’s most likely challengers.

The defining moment of the 2006 World Cup was Zinedine Zidane’s head but of Marco Materazzi, which in one moment of madness turned the tournament’s talisman in to its villain.

Most tournaments have such moments. Whether it be Maradona’s “hand of God” in 1986, Gascoigne’s tears in 1990 or Baggio blasting his penalty over the bar in 1994, each World Cup has a moment captured by TV that becomes part of our collective football psyche. There is normally a man of the tournament. From Pele to Maradonna to Ronaldo to Zidane, one player takes the tournament by the scruff of the neck and imposes his creativity upon the collective mundane.

So who will be South Africa’s player of the tournament?

The smart money is on Lionel Messi. The current World Player of the Year starred in the Champions League this year, as Arsenal’s tormented defenders will testify to. However, he is cursed with playing for an Argentinean side that limped through qualification. Quite how they managed to struggle with talent such as Carlos Tevez, Gonzalo Higuain, Diego Milito and Sergio Aguero is hard to fathom, but it just goes to demonstrate once again that football is a team sport not one dominated by individuals.

If it is not destined to be Messi’s tournament then surely it is set up for his predecessor as World Footballer of the Year and the world’s most expensive player – Cristiano Ronaldo. Like Messi, Ronaldo comes from a country that struggled to make it to South Africa. Portugal finished second to unfancied Denmark in qualification and had to beat Bosnia in the play-offs. It is probably fair to say that the other Iberian nation’s best chance was four years ago when many of its stars were at their peak.

As Brazil and Spain head into the tournament as favourites, it is most likely that this year’s star player will come from one of those nations. Ronaldinho has not even made the Brazilian squad, so expect Kaka, the world’s second most expensive footballer to be their standout player – although Manchester City fans might be surprised to see Robinho’s central role in the squad.

Spain’s squad is packed with talented individuals who for once are playing together as a team. Expect Iniesta to pull the strings in midfield, and Villa to beat off Torres, Messi and Didier Drogba to win the Golden Boot as the tournament’s top scorer.

A while back Pele claimed that it would not be long before an African nation became world champions. As the tournament is being held on African soil for the first time, what are the chances that the winners will come from the host continent?

South Africa has two chances – slim and none – and slim isn’t expected to show up. African Nation champions Morocco failed to qualify, which means the continent’s hopes rest with the traditionally strong nations Cameroon and Nigeria, and relative newcomers Ghana and the Ivory Coast. Given a fair draw you would expect the Ivory Coast to have the best chance, but unfortunately it has been drawn with Brazil, Portugal and North Korea, so even making it through to the last 16 would be an achievement. Ghana has fared no luckier facing Serbia, Germany and Australia in its group. Nigeria and Cameroon have a relatively easier draw. Cameroon probably has the best chance of advancement with a decent shot at a quarter-final spot at least.

As always happens at this time, that question has to be asked. What chance of England bringing football home for the first time since 1966? Better than rank outsiders New Zealand and North Korea for sure. However, an over-reliance on Rooney, defensive frailties that have led to recalls for both King and Carragher, and recurring outbursts of quarter-final-itis make the team’s standing as third favourites decidedly optimistic. Expect to see Rooney’s penalty shoot-out tears as Terry is distracted by a former girlfriend in the crowd while slicing the crucial penalty over the crossbar.

The Netherlands will flatter and then deceive. Both Italy and France will struggle to the quarter-final stage before crashing out. And Germany seems destined to lose to Spain in the semis.

All of which leads us back to where we started with Brazil and Spain likely to face each other in a shoot-out after two hours of highly technical but generally incident-free minutes of football. That is unless traditional enemies Germany and England form a last minute coalition to compete in the final unopposed, claiming the trophy jointly as their progressive right. As Brazil never loses on shoot-outs and Europeans never win outside of Europe, this pundit opts for Spain to win on penalties. Whoever wins come Jul. 11 it will all be over and normal sleeping patterns can resume.

The World Cup kicks off on Jun. 11 when South Africa plays Mexico and finishes exactly one month later.